Sunday, May 17, 2009

Trade Balance--


The big data out of the US is the latest Trade Balance report. We've seen the Trade Balance continue to close what was once a very wide gap. In other words, the US used to have this thing called a 'consumer' and now we do not, therefore, America's trade gap has closed sharply with economies like China, Japan, Mexico, and Canada who are strongly reliant on the US consumer. The best case scenario for the markets would be to see the US Trade Balance print worse than expected, but only if the worse part is due to the fact more US consumers stepped up their buying from those other economies who rely on American consumerism. That would be a good sign of overall recovery for global economic trade and potential future growth. The markets would like to see the US consumer revive, borrow, and spend. I'll be closely scrutinizing the data tomorrow

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