Sunday, May 17, 2009

Price exhaustion


So everything we've discussed thus far is what leads up to how tradeable price action patterns develop and are formed. One of my philosophies on price action says that the price of any market, including currencies, will always over-extend and over-exhaust itself to the upside or downside. How this applies specifically to the spot Forex market stems from my belief that a larger degree of retail traders will buy or sell into the final 5% of a market move. The bulk of the buying power that propelled price from the "lift-off" point has either stopped buying or has begun the profit-taking process. Therefore, the demand is lacking to force price higher and lack of demand is one of the main contributing factors leading to price failing to continue higher or lower. Those market participants who pile into the last 5% of a market move lead price to exhaust itself in addition to the contributing factor of stop loss triggering. When you combine exhausted price and the effect of stop loss triggering, you get an over-extended price that will struggle and then ultimately fail to move beyond a certain point at that given moment in time. Then comes the addition of market participants who believe price is over-valued and the collective buying power of this group of participants contributes to price failing to continue and price will falter and begin to reverse.

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