In light of a strong sell-off on the S&P 500 today, spot crude managed to move back above the $58.50 level which helped keep the euro fairly supported against the dollar. For those traders who were expecting to see a massive euro sell-off after Friday's mega run were disappointed and probably got stopped out yet again. I've not changed my personal trading bias and I will not buy the USD against any of the majors. The USD Index gained back a little ground but nothing to get too excited over and I still believe the dollar remains at risk, especially if the S&P 500 can hang on to its gains and keep pressing northbound. That being said, as we talked about this morning during the Q and A session, I still believe the closer we get to summer session trading conditions, especially into June and July, the higher the risk and probability of Wall St. giving up some of its gains, which would correlate into the USD gaining back against its counterparts. The liquidity will dry up considerably after Memorial Day and with a lack of buying conviction I find it hard to imagine how the S&P 500 could get back to 975 or 1,000 over the summer. So in addition to disinflation being one of the biggest risks for the global markets, summer trading conditions are also a very viable risk, especially in July and August.
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